In my blog post on August 18, the topic was “Have Luxury Homes a Worsening Market Ahead in the Future”.
According to the MDA DataQuick and First American Corelogic trend analyzes, the latest reading of the data reveal stats that tend to support my previous blog post.
In the big picture of the real estate market First American Corelogic reported that in California 42% of all loans were underwater on June 30th. Nationwide 32.2% of homes had negative equity and that was less than the 32.5% at the end of March. Some might say this could reflect a flattening of monthly home price changes. Negative equity occurs with a decline in value or increase in mortgage debt (probably very little of this).
The data provided by MDA DataQuick reveals the median price % change was down 8.9% comparing July 09 with July 08 and down 35% below 2007′s peak of $645,000 for Orange County. In all of Southern California it was down 23.0% in July.
Using zip code data for luxury homes with a median prices of $1 million or more, the following median price negative changes resulted when comparing July 09 with July 08.
Corona Del Mar $1,223,500 down 14.1%
Laguna Beach $1,175,000 down 33.8%
Newport Beach $1,075,000 up 0.1%
Newport Beach $3,210,000 down 28.5%
Newport Beach $1,675,000 down 77.2%
Newport Beach $1,445,500 up 48.3%
Newport Coast $1,300,000 down 27.7%
With the exception of one significant positive % change, the negative equity status of these luxury homes bears watching for the remainder of 2009 for any change in the % trends of median luxury home prices for these zips. A number of factors in combination might worsen the negative trends. For the near term trends in unemployment, foreclosures, impact of various stimulus programs by the Feds, shrinking commercial base are just a few to watch.
No one has a crystal ball for gauging luxury home prices for the last half of 2009!
